Introduction to Uncertainty Quantification

Discipline: Systems Engineering (Statistics) Abstract: Uncertainty quantification (UQ) for modeling and simulation enables predictions about what is plausible based on current knowledge through the identification, quantification, and reduction of uncertainties in model inputs, outputs, and form. While modeling tools have become ubiquitous across NASA's mission portfolio, the adoption of UQ practices to ensure prediction reliability in the unavoidable presence of uncertainty has lagged behind. This talk provides an introductory overview of key UQ concepts and best practices to orient newcomers to the field. About the Speaker(s): Dr. James Warner is a Computational Scientist at NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) in Hampton, Virginia. He joined LaRC as a member of the Durability, Damage Tolerance, and Reliability Branch (DDTRB) in 2014 after receiving his PhD from Cornell University in Civil & Environmental Engineering with a focus on computational solid mechanics. Previously, he received his B.S. in Mechanical Engineering from SUNY Binghamton University in 2008. Dr. Warner’s primary research area is uncertainty quantification (UQ), focusing in particular in developing and applying methods that incorporate high performance computing and machine learning for computational speedup. He is also interested in helping to transition state-of-the-art UQ research into engineering practice at NASA, highlighted in recent efforts to estimate reliability of the xEMU spacesuit and develop guidance systems for entry, descent, and landing for Mars landing. Throughout his ten years at NASA, Dr. Warner has also led the development of a publicly-available parallel finite element analysis code and has contributed to several other open-source software packages for UQ. Dr. Patrick Leser received his PhD in Aerospace Engineering from North Carolina State University in 2017 and is currently a Materials Research Engineer in the Durability, Damage Tolerance, and Reliability Branch at NASA Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia. His work focuses on uncertainty quantification and its application to several fields including fatigue and fracture, structural health monitoring, digital twins, additive manufacturing, and the certification of aerospace structures. Dr. Leser is an active participant in the NASA Engineering and Safety Center where he works primarily on fatigue crack growth in composite overwrapped pressure vessels, damage tolerance, and probabilistic structural analysis. From a research perspective, Dr. Leser is particularly interested in computationally-efficient methods for uncertainty propagation and probabilistic model calibration, and he actively develops a number of open-source UQ tools.

Dr. James Warner

6/25/2025 2:30:00 PM